Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG): Can The Stock Move Higher?

5:17 pm ET, 22 Mar 2018

A new addition to the Chipotle management team caused CMG's stock prices to surge yesterday. After Chipotle hired Brian Niccol as its new CEO, it also brought Chris Brandt from a Mexican fast-food company to lead its marketing division in the upcoming month.

Chipotle's image was tarnished by a number of food safety scandals. Niccol’s actions are essential to restoring CMG's reputation.

The breakout of food-borne illness in 2015 caused a widespread aversion towards Chipotle. This led to a significant drop in the company's stock price from all-time highs by 50%.

But the declining trend changed in 2017 with a 15% rise in revenues. 

What is the prospect for Chipotle now?  According to Finstead Research, CMG’s price upside is negative.  

CMG’s average price target is $305, which is quite a bit less than its current stock price.

CMG has a high valuation (P/E ratio) compared to its peers. It lags only PBPB and HABT.


Our advice to potential investors—take the ‘wait and see’ approach.  

Disclaimer: The news article above expresses the author’s opinion about the topic of the article. We strongly advise you not to base your investment decisions just on this article alone. If you’d like to become a writer for Finny Bites, please send us an email at hi@askfinny.com.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) Stock Guide

Updated at: 4:29 am ET, 12 Jul 2020

Before we start: if you're looking for CMG stock price, you can quickly find it out by visiting Finny and typing "CMG quote". If you're looking for a quick scoop on CMG stock (chart, price target, market cap, news and buy or sell analysis), go to Finny and look for "CMG". You'll get all this info in one place. Or you can just type "CMG news" to get the latest stock news.

Looking to buy or sell Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)? Interested in getting the full scoop on CMG, including earnings and dividends, stock forecast, buy or sell analysis and key stats? If so, you came to the right place.

In this CMG stock guide, we'll address key questions about CMG, above and beyond what you can find on Yahoo Finance, Zacks, MarketWatch or Morningstar.

Here is what you'll be able to find in this guide:

Earnings and Dividends: earnings, earnings date, dividend rate and dividend yield;
Analyst Predictions: stock forecast and analyst ratings;
Analysis: Finny Score and buy or sell analysis;
Key Stats: revenue, market cap, revenue growth, profit margin, P/E ratio, P/B ratio, industry, sector, and number of employees.

And here is the list of questions we'll answer:
1. What are CMG earnings?
2. When is CMG earnings date?
3. What is CMG stock forecast (i.e., prediction)?
4. CMG buy or sell? What is CMG Finny Score?
5. What are the reasons to buy CMG? Why should I buy CMG stock?
6. What are the reasons to sell CMG? Why should I sell CMG stock?
7. What are CMG key stats: revenue, market cap, revenue growth, profit margin, P/E ratio, P/B ratio industry, sector, and number of employees?

So let's start. Scroll down to the question that interests you the most.

Earnings and Dividends

1. What are CMG earnings?

CMG trailing 12-month earnings per share (EPS) is $11.95.

2. When is CMG earnings date?

CMG earnings date is July 22, 2020.

Analyst Predictions

3. What is CMG stock forecast (i.e., prediction)?

Based on CMG analyst price targets, CMG stock forecast is $867.64 (for a year from now). That means the average analyst price target for CMG stock is $867.64. The prediction is based on 35 analyst estimates.

The low price target for CMG is $630.00, while the high price target is $1,010.00.

CMG analyst rating is Hold.

Analysis

4. CMG buy or sell? What is CMG Finny Score?

#{finnyScore:15}Our quantitative analysis shows 2 reasons to buy and 11 reasons to sell CMG, resulting in Finny Score of 15.

5. What are the reasons to buy CMG? Why should I buy CMG stock?

Here are the reasons to buy CMG stock:

  • We forecast that the fast-casual restaurant category will outpace the broader restaurant industry the next several years, driven by a compelling value proposition, attractive unit economics, and accommodation of evolving consumer preferences.
  • Chipotle was a pioneer in the movement toward naturally-raised proteins and organic produce. Though costlier to source and clouded by recent food safety issues, these are a key source of differentiation and pricing power.
  • A push into secondary concepts, including Pizzeria Locale and Tasty Made, can offer new layers of long-term growth.
  • CMG quarterly revenue growth was 7.80%, higher than the industry and sector average revenue growth (1.79% and 1.35%, respectively). See CMG revenue growth chart.
  • CMG cash to debt ratio is 0.30, higher than the average industry (0.12) and sector (0.14) cash to debt ratio. See CMG cash to debt chart.

6. What are the reasons to sell CMG? Why should I sell CMG stock?

Let's look at the reasons to sell CMG stock (i.e., the bear case):

  • Fast-casual restaurant competition is escalating, and switching costs are nonexistent. Mexican concepts make up roughly one fourth of the $44 billion U.S. fast-casual industry.
  • Restaurant chains across all tiers are aggressively discounting to reverse decelerating traffic, increasing competition for fast-casual chains.
  • Chipotle must deal with evolving consumer preferences, wage increases, commodity cost volatility, and negative publicity tied to foodborne illnesses. Because there are fewer suppliers of naturally raised proteins, food shortages and unpredictable pricing are possible.
  • CMG stock price ($1118.04) is close to the 52-week high ($1132.73). Perhaps now is a good time to sell? See CMG price chart.
  • CMG profitability is declining. The YoY profit margin change was -0.31 percentage points. See CMG profitability chart.
  • CMG forward P/E ratio is 50.66, which is high compared to its industry peers’ P/E ratios. See CMG forward P/E ratio chart.
  • CMG Price/Book ratio is 15.51, which is high compared to its industry peers’ P/B ratios. See CMG forward Price/Book ratio chart.
  • CMG Price/Sales ratio is 4.57, which is high compared to its industry peers’ P/S ratios. See CMG forward Price/Sales ratio chart.
  • CMG PEG ratio (P/E adjusted for growth) is 5.60, which is high compared to its industry peers’ PEG ratios. See CMG PEG chart.
  • CMG average analyst price target ($867.64) is below its current price ($1118.04). See CMG price target chart.
  • CMG short share of float is 6.48%. The stock is much more frequently shorted than the average industry, sector or S&P 500 stock. See CMG short share of float chart.
  • CMG short interest (days to cover the shorts) ratio is 2.01. The stock garners more short interest than the average industry, sector or S&P 500 stock. See CMG short interest ratio chart.
  • CMG Enterprise Value/Revenue multiple is 4.90, which is high compared to its industry peers’ Enterprise Value/Revenue multiples. See CMG Enterprise Value/Revenue chart.
  • CMG Enterprise Value/EBITDA multiple is 41.90, which is high compared to its industry peers’ Enterprise Value/EBITDA ratios. See CMG Enterprise Value/EBITDA chart.

Key Stats

7. What are CMG key stats : revenue, market cap, revenue growth, profit margin, P/E ratio, P/B ratio industry, sector, and number of employees?

Let's look at the key statistics for CMG:

Metrics CMG
Price $1,161.57
Average Price Target / Upside $867.64 / -25.30%
Average Analyst Rating Hold
Forward Dividend Yield 0.00%
Industry Restaurants
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Number of Employees 73,000
Market Cap $33.02B
Forward P/E Ratio 56.57
Price/Book Ratio 5.88
Revenue (TTM) $5.62B
YoY Quarterly Revenue Growth -4.80%
Profit Margin 4.55%

If you liked this analysis, check out Stock Guides for other stocks.

Disclaimer: The news article above expresses the author’s opinion about the topic of the article. We strongly advise you not to base your investment decisions just on this article alone. If you’d like to become a writer for Finny Bites, please send us an email at hi@askfinny.com.

Use Finny to ask any finance or investment question. Big or small. Personal or general.
Follow Us