Fastenal (FAST) stock: is there an upside?

4:28 pm ET, 09 Oct 2018

Fastenal Company (FAST) shares are trading at $56.08, down -1%. The company is announcing its quarterly earnings results on Wednesday before the market opens. What's driving FAST stock price? What's FAST stock price forecast?

Fastenal Company engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies. Fasteners account for around 35% of the company's sales. Lately, the stock has performed well: it yielded a return of 27% in the past year.

Investors have been showing increasing interest in the company after its strong second-quarter results. On the other hand, some investors worry about the rising competition in the fasteners business. The last quarter's revenue rose 13.4% to $1.27 billion and earnings per share came at $0.74 compared to $0.52 for the same period last year.

The third-quarter results will be released before market open on October 10, 2018. Analysts expect the company to earn $0.67 per share on revenue of $1.27 billion. The company beat analyst estimates in the previous four quarters.

What is the sentiment towards the FAST stock? Our technical analysis shows that:

  • The stock short-term sentiment (next 30 days) is trending negative;
  • The mid-term sentiment (3-6 months) is trending positive;
  • The long-term sentiment (9-12 months) is positive. 

Over the last month, Fastenal Company (FAST) returned -1.24%.

Fastenal Company (FAST) short share of float is 8.57%. The stock is much more frequently shorted than the average industry, sector or S&P 500 stock.

Fastenal Company (FAST) average analyst price target ($57.00) is -1.76% below its current price ($58.02).

For the latest price and information on Fastenal Company, please visit Finstead and search for "FAST price" or "FAST news".

MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) earnings: time to recover?

5:43 pm ET, 01 Jul 2018

MSC Industrial Direct Company, Inc. (MSM) is expected to report earnings on July 11 before the market open. The report will be for the fiscal quarter ending May 2018.  The shares are trading at $84.85, down -0.38%.

What are the MSM earnings expectations?  What news will the market be watching out for?  

The share price of MSC Industrial has lagged that of peers such as Grainger (GWW) and Fastenal (FAST), and also that of suppliers such as Kennametal (KMT)The market is wondering whether MSC Industrial's issues are predominantly driven by cyclical factors or increased online competition from Amazon (AMZN), which is expanding into industrial distribution and is altering price transparency and competitive balance.

MSC Industrial saw some long-awaited price leverage, but the organic growth rate seems light compared to its multiyear highs.  Hiring more reps should help MSC Industrial, but the risk remains that price transparency and online competition have whittled away its competitive advantage.

Double-digit free cash flow growth still supports a long-term annualized return of 10%, but the company really needs to accelerate its organic growth and improve its margin.

MSC Industrial Direct Co. Inc., has a mixed history of beating analysts’ earnings estimates.  In the past four quarters, the company: 

  • Delivered on the analyst EPS estimate ($1.09 actuals vs. $1.09 forecast) in FQ3’17;
  • Beat analyst EPS estimate by 8 cents ($1.07 actuals vs. $.99 forecast) in FQ4’17;
  • Missed analyst EPS estimate by 1 cent ($1.05 actuals vs. $1.06 forecast) in FQ1’18;
  • Missed analyst EPS estimate by 27 cents ($1.04 actuals vs. $1.31 forecast) in FQ2’18;

For FQ3’18, EPS is expected to grow by 28% year-over-year to $1.39, while revenue is expected to grow 12% year-over-year to $832 million.  


Over the last month, MSC Industrial Direct Company, Inc. (MSM) returned -5.74%. .

MSC Industrial Direct Company, Inc. (MSM) short share of float is 5.3%. The stock is much more frequently shorted than the average industry, sector or S&P 500 stock.

MSC Industrial Direct Company, Inc. (MSM) average analyst price target ($104.08) is 22.66% above its current price ($84.85).

For the latest price and information on MSC Industrial Direct Company, Inc., please visit Finstead and search for "MSM price" or "MSM news".

Fastenal (FAST) earnings preview: double-digit revenue growth?

8:35 am ET, 09 Jul 2018

Fastenal Company (FAST)  is expected to report earnings on July 11 before the market open. The report will be for the fiscal quarter ending June 2018.  Shares are trading at 48.13, down -1.27% from yesterday.

 What are the FAST earnings expectations?  What news will the market be watching out for?  

Since opening its first fasteners store in 1967, Fastenal has built one of the largest industrial distribution businesses in the United States. For many years, Fastenal’s growth story was driven by its store count, which now stands at approximately 2,400. While this expansive footprint is still an important component of Fastenal’s business model, other strategies--including expanding its product portfolio, its vending and inventory management services, and most recently, its on-site program--have become increasingly important growth drivers.  

The company disclosed that its 70,000-plus vending machines generate sales of $900 million today, but the long-term market opportunity is $22 billion. While vending products tend to carry a lower gross margin, approximately 20% of vending sales are higher-margin Fastenal-branded products.

Fastenal could face gross margin headwinds as nonfastener sales, national accounts, and on-site programs become a larger part of the firm’s business.  Amazon Business could disrupt the industrial distribution industry, taking market share and pressuring margins.

Fastenal Company has a mixed history of beating analysts’ earnings estimates.  In the past four quarters, the company: 

  • Beat analyst EPS estimates by 2 cents ($.52 actuals vs. $.50 forecast) in FQ2’17;
  • Delivered on the analyst EPS estimate ($.50 actuals vs. $.50 forecast) in FQ3’17;
  • Missed analyst EPS estimates by 1 cents ($.45 actuals vs. $.46 forecast) in FQ4’17;
  • Delivered on the analyst EPS estimate ($.61 actuals vs. $.61 forecast) in FQ1’18;

For FQ2’18, EPS is expected to grow by 27% year-over-year to $.66, while revenue is expected to grow 12% year-over-year to $1.27 billion.  


Over the last month, Fastenal Company (FAST) returned -8.32%.

Fastenal Company (FAST) short share of float is 10.17%. The stock is much more frequently shorted than the average industry, sector or S&P 500 stock.

Fastenal Company (FAST) average analyst price target ($55.57) is 15.46% above its current price ($48.13).

For the latest price and information on Fastenal Company, please visit Finstead and search for "FAST price" or "FAST news".

Fastenal Company (FAST) Stock Guide

Updated at: 8:25 pm ET, 17 Sep 2020

Before we start: if you're looking for FAST stock price, you can quickly find it out by visiting Finny and typing "FAST quote". If you're looking for a quick scoop on FAST stock (chart, price target, market cap, news and buy or sell analysis), go to Finny and look for "FAST". You'll get all this info in one place. Or you can just type "FAST news" to get the latest stock news.

Looking to buy or sell Fastenal Company (FAST)? Interested in getting the full scoop on FAST, including earnings and dividends, stock forecast, buy or sell analysis and key stats? If so, you came to the right place.

In this FAST stock guide, we'll address key questions about FAST, above and beyond what you can find on Yahoo Finance, Zacks, MarketWatch or Morningstar.

Here is what you'll be able to find in this guide:

Earnings and Dividends: earnings, earnings date, dividend rate and dividend yield;
Analyst Predictions: stock forecast and analyst ratings;
Analysis: Finny Score and buy or sell analysis;
Key Stats: revenue, market cap, revenue growth, profit margin, P/E ratio, P/B ratio, industry, sector, and number of employees.

And here is the list of questions we'll answer:
1. What are FAST earnings?
2. What is FAST dividend?
3. What is FAST dividend yield?
4. What is FAST stock forecast (i.e., prediction)?
5. FAST buy or sell? What is FAST Finny Score?
6. What are the reasons to buy FAST? Why should I buy FAST stock?
7. What are the reasons to sell FAST? Why should I sell FAST stock?
8. What are FAST key stats: revenue, market cap, revenue growth, profit margin, P/E ratio, P/B ratio industry, sector, and number of employees?

So let's start. Scroll down to the question that interests you the most.

Earnings and Dividends

1. What are FAST earnings?

FAST trailing 12-month earnings per share (EPS) is $1.45.

2. What is FAST dividend?

FAST forward dividend is $1.00.

3. What is FAST dividend yield?

FAST forward dividend yield is 2.05%.

Analyst Predictions

4. What is FAST stock forecast (i.e., prediction)?

Based on FAST analyst price targets, FAST stock forecast is $47.33 (for a year from now). That means the average analyst price target for FAST stock is $47.33. The prediction is based on 18 analyst estimates.

The low price target for FAST is $40.00, while the high price target is $54.00.

FAST analyst rating is Buy.

Analysis

5. FAST buy or sell? What is FAST Finny Score?

#{finnyScore:56}Our quantitative analysis shows 5 reasons to buy and 4 reasons to sell FAST, resulting in Finny Score of 56.

6. What are the reasons to buy FAST? Why should I buy FAST stock?

Here are the reasons to buy FAST stock:

  • Vending and on-site programs should provide a long growth runway for Fastenal. The company believes the market could support 1.7 million vending machines and 15,000 on-site locations.
  • Fastenal can capitalize on its national scale, broad product portfolio, and inventory-management services to take market share from smaller and less-capable distributors.
  • Despite serving cyclical end markets, Fastenal’s business model generates strong free cash flow throughout the cycle. Fastenal will likely continue to use its cash flow to fund a shareholder-friendly capital allocation strategy.
  • FAST quarterly revenue growth was 10.30%, higher than the industry and sector average revenue growth (2.59% and 1.01%, respectively). See FAST revenue growth chart.
  • FAST profitability is improving. The YoY profit margin change was 0.57 percentage points. See FAST profitability chart.
  • FAST forward dividend yield is 2.05%, higher than the industry (0.52%) and sector (0.49%) forward dividend yields. See FAST forward dividend chart.
  • FAST average analyst rating is Buy. See FAST analyst rating chart.
  • FAST cash to debt ratio is 0.31, higher than the average industry (0.11) and sector (0.12) cash to debt ratio. See FAST cash to debt chart.

7. What are the reasons to sell FAST? Why should I sell FAST stock?

Let's look at the reasons to sell FAST stock (i.e., the bear case):

  • Fastenal could face gross margin headwinds as nonfastener sales, national accounts, and on-site programs become a larger part of the firm’s business. A continued mix shift toward nonfasteners also could dilute the firm’s differentiation.
  • Amazon Business could disrupt the industrial distribution industry, taking market share and pressuring margins.
  • Once a primary growth driver, store count has declined by 8% since its 2013 peak as market saturation and e-commerce make new stores a less-viable growth strategy.
  • FAST forward P/E ratio is 31.72, which is high compared to its industry peers’ P/E ratios. See FAST forward P/E ratio chart.
  • FAST Price/Sales ratio is 5.13, which is high compared to its industry peers’ P/S ratios. See FAST forward Price/Sales ratio chart.
  • FAST short interest (days to cover the shorts) ratio is 4.64. The stock garners more short interest than the average industry, sector or S&P 500 stock. See FAST short interest ratio chart.
  • FAST Enterprise Value/Revenue multiple is 5.15, which is high compared to its industry peers’ Enterprise Value/Revenue multiples. See FAST Enterprise Value/Revenue chart.

Key Stats

8. What are FAST key stats : revenue, market cap, revenue growth, profit margin, P/E ratio, P/B ratio industry, sector, and number of employees?

Let's look at the key statistics for FAST:

Metrics FAST
Price $44.88
Average Price Target / Upside $47.33 / 5.45%
Average Analyst Rating Buy
Forward Dividend Yield 2.05%
Industry Industrial Distribution
Sector Industrials
Number of Employees 21,644
Market Cap $28.39B
Forward P/E Ratio 31.72
Price/Book Ratio 5.13
Revenue (TTM) $5.53B
YoY Quarterly Revenue Growth 10.30%
Profit Margin 15.07%

If you liked this analysis, check out Stock Guides for other stocks.

Follow Us