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Gilead Sciences (GILD) earnings preview: fighting competitive headwinds?

3:57 pm ET, 20 Jul 2018

Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) is expected to report earnings on July 25 after market close.  The report will be for the fiscal quarter ending June 2018.  Shares are trading at 77.33, up 0.57%.

What are GILD earnings expectations?  What news will the market be watching out for?  

One of the things that analysts are watching out for is the impact of patent expirations on the company's revenue and margin.  Gilead's HIV franchise saw the first important patent expirations in 2017, and the firm needs to convert patients to newer products like Genvoya and Biktarvy to avoid a significant hit to sales.

Gilead generates stellar profit margins with its HIV and HCV portfolio, which requires only a small salesforce and inexpensive manufacturing. What Gilead needs to drive business further is HCV market stabilization, strong continued innovation in HIV, solid pipeline data, and smart future acquisitions to return to growth.

Gilead's tenofovir molecule formed the heart of the firm's $14 billion HIV franchise. Combo pills offer patients convenience and affordability, as they are less likely to miss doses and develop drug resistance, and they only need to make one copayment.

Gilead's biggest competitive threat in HIV is Glaxo; Triumeq saw rapid growth in 2015, and Glaxo and J&J are testing novel combinations that also bypass Gilead's drugs. However, Gilead's Genvoya (2015), Odefsey (2016), Descovy (2016), and Biktarvy (2018) launches push patent protection into the late 2020s and are boosting market share.

Gilead Sciences Inc. has a mixed history of beating analysts’ earnings estimates.  In the past four quarters, the company: 

  • Beat analyst EPS estimates by 38 cents ($2.56 actuals vs. $2.18 forecast) in FQ2’17;
  • Beat analyst EPS estimates by 18 cents ($2.27 actuals vs. $2.09 forecast) in FQ3’17;
  • Beat analyst EPS estimates by 8 cents ($1.78 actuals vs. $1.70 forecast) in FQ4’17;
  • Missed analyst EPS estimates by 18 cents ($1.48 actuals vs. $1.66 forecast) in FQ1’18.

For FQ2’18, EPS is expected to decline by 40% year-over-year to $1.54, while revenue is expected to decline 28% year-over-year to $5.17 billion.

Over the last month, Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) returned +10.11%.

Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) forward P/E ratio is 11.98, and it’s low compared to its industry peers’ P/E ratio.

Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) average analyst price target ($85.63) is 10.73% above its current price ($77.33).

For the latest price and information on Gilead Sciences, Inc., please visit Finstead and search for "GILD price" or "GILD news".

Gilead (GILD): why this stock is undervalued

2:14 pm ET, 02 May 2018

Gilead (NASDAQ: GILD) is down 8% today in mid-day training.  Upon publishing first-quarter results,  the outlook for the company's hepatitis C medications (where Gilead is seeing increasing competition from AbbVie) and HIV/HBV drugs (hit by Viread generics in HBV and steeper HIV inventory drawdowns) doesn't looks as promising. 

Gilead stock looks slightly undervalued at this point because the market is undervaluing Gilead’s HIV and oncology portfolios.  The company also shows significant potential in the immunology/NASH area. 

Biktarvy (single-table HIV drug) revenues were only $35 million this past quarter.  However, this could easily become Gilead’s largest HIV product, hitting a $5 billion mark (revenues per annum).  

Biktarvy was approved in the U.S.  and is likely to get approved in Europe in the third quarter.  HIV patients are switching from Gilead’s Genvoya (cannibalizing Gilead’s HIV sales) but also from Glaxo’s Tivicay and Triumeq.  So we expect the market share for Gilead's HIV practice to expand.

Over the last year, GILD returned -1.91%. This return is lower than Biotechnology sector (40.58%), Healthcare industry (29.84%), S&P 500 (11.16%) returns.

For the latest news on Gilead, stock price, valuation, and financials, please visit Finstead  (and type "GILD news" or "GILD stock price").  

AbbVie (ABBV): Will The Stock Recover?

3:28 pm ET, 22 Mar 2018

AbbVie (NYSE: ABBV) diverted the Rova-T program today—and that led to its stock price fall by 13%. 

The program’s objective was to obtain a quick approval for the treatment of third-line refractory small cell lung cancer. 

In 2016, AbbVie pursued an expensive deal to acquire a biotech unicorn Stemcentrx for $5.8 Billion. It had bet on its lead product named Rova-T, which was targeted to approach the proteins that are found in tissues of people who have lung cancer.

After consultation with the FDA, AbbVie won’t try for accelerated approval of Rova-T in one type of small cell lung cancer This step has created a wave of disappointment among its investors.

What do the analysts say about ABBV? Per Finstead Research, ABBV’s average price target is almost $128.


The valuation of ABBV stock is relatively low compared to its peers. Only GILDPFE and BIIB are valued below ABBV based on the forward P/E ratio.


If you're a trader contemplating buying ABBV, there may be a point when the stock will bounce back. 

Top 6 Biotech Stocks For Traders

1:48 am ET, 08 Jan 2018

biotech

Biotech stocks are a risky business—certainly not suitable for retirement investing.  If you’re up for some speculative biotech trades, we are presenting the top 6 among our freshest picks of biotech stocks for the coming 12 months. 

Incyte (INCY)

Now is a good entry point for this drugs development and sales firm. Stocks recently hit a 52-week low. The pipeline of products includes profitable Jakafi for treating bone marrow disorder. 

Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN)

A global biotech firm with a strong balance sheet and new drugs in development. Specializes in life-changing therapies for patients affected by rare diseases. 

Celgene Corporation (CELG)

A stable company showing steady growth in revenue in recent quarters in this high-risk sector. Celgene specializes in cancer and inflammatory diseases, developing its own drugs and collaborating with other large drug producers. Good investing opportunity thanks to a sharp stock decline of over 30% in October 2017. 

Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD)

Gilead is a leader in HIV treatment, with a successful hepatitis C product, and is growing steadily around 30% in the last five years. Revenues and operating profit have both increased over 4 years. 

Enzo Biochem, Inc. (ENZ)

Enzo offers a range of therapies that include cardiovascular and infectious diseases plus diabetes and cancer. Its stocks have been on an upward trend since March 2016, forming several new bases since then. 

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)

Vertex focuses on cystic fibrosis treatments, and its growth prospects lie in its pipeline. Analysts are excited about its growth prospects, with predictions way ahead of other biotech firms. Vertex has the potential to grow its earnings by 65% annually in the next few years. 

Over the last year, INCY returned -4.90%. This return is lower than Biotechnology sector (78.04%), Healthcare industry (50.71%), and S&P 500 (20.90%) returns.

Over the last year, ALXN returned -11.93%. This return is lower than Biotechnology sector (78.04%), Healthcare industry (50.71%), and S&P 500 (20.90%) returns.

Over the last year, CELG returned -11.70%. This return is lower than Biotechnology sector (78.04%), Healthcare industry (50.71%), and S&P 500 (20.90%) returns.

Over the last year, GILD returned -2.28%. This return is lower than Biotechnology sector (78.04%), Healthcare industry (50.71%), and S&P 500 (20.90%) returns.

Over the last year, ENZ returned +18.10%. This return is lower than Medical Laboratories & Research sector (22.24%), Healthcare industry (46.89%), and S&P 500 (20.90%) returns.

Over the last year, VRTX returned +96.93%. This return is higher than Biotechnology sector (78.04%), Healthcare industry (50.71%), and S&P 500 (20.90%) returns.

Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) Stock Guide

Updated at: 10:23 pm ET, 17 Sep 2020

Before we start: if you're looking for GILD stock price, you can quickly find it out by visiting Finny and typing "GILD quote". If you're looking for a quick scoop on GILD stock (chart, price target, market cap, news and buy or sell analysis), go to Finny and look for "GILD". You'll get all this info in one place. Or you can just type "GILD news" to get the latest stock news.

Looking to buy or sell Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD)? Interested in getting the full scoop on GILD, including earnings and dividends, stock forecast, buy or sell analysis and key stats? If so, you came to the right place.

In this GILD stock guide, we'll address key questions about GILD, above and beyond what you can find on Yahoo Finance, Zacks, MarketWatch or Morningstar.

Here is what you'll be able to find in this guide:

Earnings and Dividends: earnings, earnings date, dividend rate and dividend yield;
Analyst Predictions: stock forecast and analyst ratings;
Analysis: Finny Score and buy or sell analysis;
Key Stats: revenue, market cap, revenue growth, profit margin, P/E ratio, P/B ratio, industry, sector, and number of employees.

And here is the list of questions we'll answer:
1. What are GILD earnings?
2. What is GILD dividend?
3. What is GILD dividend yield?
4. What is GILD stock forecast (i.e., prediction)?
5. GILD buy or sell? What is GILD Finny Score?
6. What are the reasons to buy GILD? Why should I buy GILD stock?
7. What are the reasons to sell GILD? Why should I sell GILD stock?
8. What are GILD key stats: revenue, market cap, revenue growth, profit margin, P/E ratio, P/B ratio industry, sector, and number of employees?

So let's start. Scroll down to the question that interests you the most.

Earnings and Dividends

1. What are GILD earnings?

GILD trailing 12-month earnings per share (EPS) is -$0.20.

2. What is GILD dividend?

GILD forward dividend is $2.72.

3. What is GILD dividend yield?

GILD forward dividend yield is 4.17%.

Analyst Predictions

4. What is GILD stock forecast (i.e., prediction)?

Based on GILD analyst price targets, GILD stock forecast is $77.75 (for a year from now). That means the average analyst price target for GILD stock is $77.75. The prediction is based on 28 analyst estimates.

The low price target for GILD is $62.00, while the high price target is $94.00.

GILD analyst rating is Buy.

Analysis

5. GILD buy or sell? What is GILD Finny Score?

#{finnyScore:67}Our quantitative analysis shows 8 reasons to buy and 4 reasons to sell GILD, resulting in Finny Score of 67.

6. What are the reasons to buy GILD? Why should I buy GILD stock?

Here are the reasons to buy GILD stock:

  • Gilead markets several single-tablet regimens for HIV, and the firm's next-generation products with better long-term safety profiles, led by Genvoya, are boosting Gilead's market share.
  • Guidelines that aim to improve diagnosis and treatment rates, and new prophylaxis use, provide strong tailwinds for growth in HIV.
  • With the approval of Sovaldi and Harvoni, Gilead is the market leader in all-oral hepatitis C treatments. None of Gilead's competitors have other proven nucleotide analogs approaching the market, making the $11 billion acquisition of Pharmasset look like a bargain.
  • Gilead is known for its presence in the HCV market because of its blockbuster HCV drugs, Sovaldi and Harvoni. While Sovaldi continues to be a very important product for the company, being mostly used for the treatment of genotypes 2 and 3, Harvoni’s label has been expanded twice in the United States since approval and is now approved for use in a broader range of patient population. Presently, there is immense interest as well as commercial potential in HCV treatments given the size of the market.
  • Gilead has a robust pipeline with several development programs currently underway, ranging from phase I through phase III. The company has quite a few programs targeting non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) with advanced fibrosis including selonsertib (ASK-1 inhibitor; phase III), GS-9674 (FXR agonist; phase II) and GS-0976 (ACC inhibitor; phase II). We note that NASH is a serious liver disease affecting up to 15 million people in the United States and could lead to more serious conditions like inflammation, hepatocellular injury, progressive fibrosis and cirrhosis.
  • Gilead is looking to boost its portfolio and pipeline through deals and acquisitions. The company is also looking to expand beyond antivirals into other therapeutic areas. In May 2016, the company acquired Nimbus Apollo and its ACC inhibitor program in a deal worth $1.2 billion.
  • Gilead is making efforts to boost shareholders' value. During 2017, the company paid cash dividends of $2.7 billion and repurchased shares for $954 million.
  • Gilead's pipeline is looking promising, particularly if remdesivir proves to be successful in treating coronavirus and if filgotinib maintains best-in-class safety.
  • In Japan, Gilead was granted regulatory approval for Veklury (Remdesivir), as a treatment for SARS-CoV-2 infection.
  • GILD stock price ($65.04) is close to the 52-week low ($63.77). Perhaps now is a good time to buy? See GILD price chart.
  • GILD forward dividend yield is 4.17%, higher than the industry (0.78%) and sector (0.16%) forward dividend yields. See GILD forward dividend chart.
  • GILD forward P/E ratio is 9.39, which is low compared to its industry peers’ P/E ratios. See GILD forward P/E ratio chart.
  • GILD Price/Sales ratio is 3.72, which is low compared to its industry peers’ P/S ratios. See GILD forward Price/Sales ratio chart.
  • GILD average analyst rating is Buy. See GILD analyst rating chart.
  • GILD average analyst price target ($77.75) is above its current price ($65.04). See GILD price target chart.
  • GILD cash to debt ratio is 0.80, higher than the average industry (0.15) and sector (0.16) cash to debt ratio. See GILD cash to debt chart.
  • GILD Enterprise Value/Revenue multiple is 3.99, which is low compared to its industry peers’ Enterprise Value/Revenue multiples. See GILD Enterprise Value/Revenue chart.

7. What are the reasons to sell GILD? Why should I sell GILD stock?

Let's look at the reasons to sell GILD stock (i.e., the bear case):

  • Gilead's HIV franchise will see the first important patent expirations in 2017 and 2021, and the firm needs to convert patients to newer products like Genvoya to avoid a significant hit to sales.
  • Pricing pressure and reduced willingness to pay for convenience could weigh on Gilead's growth. Atripla will become a formidable generic competitor to Gilead's newer HIV products by 2021, and competing hepatitis C regimens are giving PBMs the ability to negotiate aggressively.
  • HCV patient demand is plummeting, and visibility on long-term demand and pricing is low.
  • Gilead is no stranger to pipeline setbacks. In fact, the company has been suffering a string of pipeline setbacks since the last few years. During 2016, the company terminated the phase II and IIb studies on simtuzumab for the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, NASH and primary sclerosing cholangitis, phase II and II/III studies on GS-5745 for the treatment of Crohn's Disease and ulcerative colitis, phase II studies on GS-4997 for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension and diabetic kidney disease, and phase II study on eleclazine for the treatment of ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation, after determining that study data showed insufficient evidence of treatment benefit.
  • Gilead’s products face intense competition in the market from both large pharma and biotech companies as well as specialized pharma firms and generic drug companies. Harvoni, Sovaldi and Epclusa, face competition from AbbVie’s Viekira Pak and Viekira XR, Bristol-Myers’ Daklinza and Johnson & Johnson’s Olysio. Competition as well as pricing pressure has intensified further with the launch of Merck’s Zepatier.
  • While the acquisition surely looks positive given the potential in the CAR T space, the deal looks expensive given the price Gilead paid. While the approval of Yescarta is a significant boost for the company, CAR-T therapy is complicated and can sometimes be associated with severe side effects which can limit potential.
  • Gilead is not generating profits on remdesivir--and it plans to make the drug affordable globally. Given the huge costs involved in manufacturing remdesivir, profitability is a concern. Also, once the coronavirus vaccine is available, this stream of revenue will decrease.
  • GILD quarterly revenue growth was -9.50%, lower than the industry and sector average revenue growth (1.76% and 0.83%, respectively). See GILD revenue growth chart.
  • GILD profitability is declining. The YoY profit margin change was -26.70 percentage points. See GILD profitability chart.
  • GILD PEG ratio (P/E adjusted for growth) is 6.65, which is high compared to its industry peers’ PEG ratios. See GILD PEG chart.
  • GILD short interest (days to cover the shorts) ratio is 2.24. The stock garners more short interest than the average industry, sector or S&P 500 stock. See GILD short interest ratio chart.

Key Stats

8. What are GILD key stats : revenue, market cap, revenue growth, profit margin, P/E ratio, P/B ratio industry, sector, and number of employees?

Let's look at the key statistics for GILD:

Metrics GILD
Price $58.17
Average Price Target / Upside $77.75 / 33.66%
Average Analyst Rating Buy
Forward Dividend Yield 4.21%
Industry Drug Manufacturers - Major
Sector Healthcare
Number of Employees 11,000
Market Cap $80.3B
Forward P/E Ratio 9.15
Price/Book Ratio 3.62
Revenue (TTM) $22.17B
YoY Quarterly Revenue Growth -9.50%
Profit Margin -1.16%

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